Defense wins Champion's Cups

[XcelLaX]

Not really news or rumors; I posted this here basically for lack of a better place to do so on these forums.

Looking for an angle on the upcoming Champion's Cup playoffs, I decided to do a little stat researching. I pored through the box scores of each team's last five regular-season games to determine which teams were playing the most solid defense down the stretch. I took into account both team defense (in terms of shots-on-goal allowed) and goaltending (in terms of save %) to come up with an adjusted team GAA, which I call the "defensive index" (DI), for each team and its most likely playoff starting goalie. (For Calgary I actually calculated two DI's; more on this later.) Think of the DI as a quick 'n' dirty measure of how each playoff team has performed defensively during the stretch run. Here is the methodology I used:

1. From each game I compiled the team's total shots-on-goal against, and the #1 goalie's total saves and total goals allowed. (Obviously, if the #2 goalie played all 60 minutes of a game, the #1 goalie got a zero for both saves and goals.)
2. I then calculated the #1 goalie's save percentage over the course of the five games, though for purposes of computing the DI I expressed it as a goals-allowed percentage (e.g. a .200 GA% instead of a .800 SV%).
3. Finally, I computed the team's DI by multiplying its total shots allowed over the five games by the goalie's GA% and dividing by 5.

If you really want to see all the raw numbers from each game, just do what I did and peruse the box scores on NLL.com. But if you just want to cut to the chase, here are the results of my defensive analysis, presented on a matchup-by-matchup basis:

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Portland Lumberjax
Total SOG against, last 5 games: 259
Matt Disher's GA%, last 5 games: 0.213 (0.787 SV%)
Lumberjax DI w/ Disher: 11.01

San Jose Stealth
Total SOG against, last 5 games: 277
Anthony Cosmo's GA%, last 5 games: 0.159 (0.841 SV%)
Stealth DI w/ Cosmo: 8.83

Comment: Among the playoff teams, the Stealth are next-to-last in shots allowed (ahead of only Philly), yet are the DI leaders by 0.61 goals over the Titans, and have over a two-goal DI advantage over their first-round opponents! This is a testament to Anthony Cosmo's netminding wizardry late in the season, as he's posted a save percentage that's almost in hockey territory.

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Calgary Roughnecks
Total SOG against, last 5 games: 222
Pat Campbell's GA%, last 5 games: 0.227 (0.773 SV%)
Roughnecks' DI w/ Campbell: 10.07
Steve Dietrich's GA%, last 5 games: 0.223 (0.777 SV%)
Roughnecks' DI w/ Dietrich: 9.91

Colorado Mammoth
Total SOG against, last 5 games: 210
Gee Nash's GA%, last 5 games: 0.280 (0.720 SV%)
Mammoth DI w/ Nash: 11.76

Comment: With Campbell and Dietrich sharing floor time pretty evenly in the last five games, I decided to compute DI's for both Rigger backstoppers. I guess I needn't have bothered; they are not only nearly identical, but both are nearly two goals better than that of the Mammoth, who will have to rely heavily on their perennial studs Prout and Langtry to overcome that edge and get them into the West final.

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Philadelphia Wings
Total SOG against, last 5 games: 296
Brandon Miller's GA%, last 5 games: 0.184 (0.816 SV%)
Wings' DI w/ Miller: 10.91

Buffalo Bandits
Total SOG against, last 5 games: 265
Ken Montour's GA%, last 5 games: 0.2111 (0.789 SV%)
Bandits' DI w/ Montour: 11.16

Comment: Defensively, this matchup is too close to call with only a 0.25 difference between the two teams' DI's. It may come down to which team is best able to overtax the opposing D with a bigger array of weapons. I might even do another post on that angle later this week, but that's for another time.

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New York Titans
Total SOG against, last 5 games: 216
Matt Vinc's GA%, last 5 games: 0.219 (0.781 SV%)
Titans' DI w/ Vinc: 9.44

Minnesota Swarm
Total SOG against, last 5 games: 246
Nick Patterson's GA%, last 5 games: 0.236 (0.764 SV%)
Swarm DI w/ Patterson: 11.63

Comment: Ruh-ro. Having watched Patterson all season, I knew he was fading somewhat down the stretch, but only after this number-crunching exercise did I realize how strongly Vinc has come on in the same time frame. More significantly though, the Swarm defense has allowed an average of eight more shots on goal per game than have the Titans in the last five. All told, this results in a defensive edge for the Titans worth over two goals. Minnesota does have more weapons than New York, though (12 Swarm with double-digit points in the regular season, to the Titans' 9), and they seem to have finally kicked their nasty third-quarter nosedive habit. Will that be enough to overcome the stout Titans' D? We shall see.

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I will probably do another round of defensive stat-crunching for the division finals, and one more for the CC final. In the meantime, the floor is open. Discuss...

[ND14]

Interesting stuff - well done.

However, I hate the cliche "defense wins championships." If defense won championships the Vancouver Canucks would have won the Stanley Cup last year. Last year's NLL champion - Rochester - finished the regular season 9th in the league in goals against.

Not to say it's not important, just that its importance shouldn't be overstated.

[Gonzo In Roch]

But it's true....
Offense wins games, but defense wins championships.

[fandit]

I agree, it is interesting and very well done. You may want to factor in "Home Field Advantage" to the mix. One team in this league has a reputation for poor road play. Which will be a huge factor this week-end. Not sure how to do it, but you seem to be on top of this stuff. Nice job!

[chuckster]

Defense is probably most important in the playoffs. Everyone always says you can throw out all the regular season stats when they playoffs start -- everyone is now 0-0 again.

[ND14]

Originally Posted by Gonzo In Roch

But it's true....
Offense wins games, but defense wins championships.

You have to win games to win championships.

Tutka just did a little research on it: http://www.nllinsider.com/2008/04/29...championships/

It's absolutely ridiculous to say that defense wins championships. It's a catchy cliche that everybody seems to buy into, but it makes no sense. Having a great defense with no scoring ability will get you nowhere (2008 Toronto Rock). Having a great offense with no defense won't get you far either (2007 Calgary Roughnecks). Having a good overall team is what will win you a championship (though Rochester showed us last year that having an excellent offense and a mediocre defense can get you there too).

[Gonzo In Roch]

I understand what you are trying to say.
But you're missing my point.

Of course you have to win games to get to the Title game.
But my friend? I can tell you from experience:
The Title game is a WHOLE different beast.

This teams got great offense during the regular season / that teams got great defense during the regular season / this team won because of this / that team lost because of that......


It all goes out the window in a Title game.

[RockStar#666]

Originally Posted by Gonzo In Roch, Les Bartley, and likely many others

....Offense wins games, but defense wins championships.

Well, in the NLL, the championship is won through a single game where the guys who score the most goals win.

IMO, the best defense is whichever one that allows fewer goals than their offense scores. When it comes to taking home the hardware, it doesn't really matter if that's 3 goals against, or 17!

Now, if it were a championship series, I'd put my money on the team with better D and goaltending most times. In a single game knockout though, I'd take it case by case and sometimes offense is going to overcome all.

[Brokasaphasia]

Originally Posted by XcelLaX

Portland Lumberjax
Total SOG against, last 5 games: 259
Matt Disher's GA%, last 5 games: 0.213 (0.787 SV%)
Lumberjax DI w/ Disher: 11.01

San Jose Stealth
Total SOG against, last 5 games: 277
Anthony Cosmo's GA%, last 5 games: 0.159 (0.841 SV%)
Stealth DI w/ Cosmo: 8.83

Since 3 of the last 5 games for Portland have been against San Jose, I decided to use your procedure but only consider those 3 games:

Portland Lumberjax
Total SOG against vs 3 SJ games: 144
Matt Disher's GA%, 3 SJ games: 0.222 (0.778 SV%)
Lumberjax DI w/ Disher: 10.667

San Jose Stealth
Total SOG against vs 3 PDX games: 176
Anthony Cosmo's GA%, 3 PDX games: 0.182 (0.818 SV%)
Stealth DI w/ Cosmo: 10.667

EXACTLY the same number! We've got Cosmo's number baby! I am looking forward to this match-up!!!

[XcelLaX]

Originally Posted by fandit

I agree, it is interesting and very well done. You may want to factor in "Home Field Advantage" to the mix. One team in this league has a reputation for poor road play. Which will be a huge factor this week-end. Not sure how to do it, but you seem to be on top of this stuff. Nice job!

Thank you. I presume you're referring to my Swarm there. Actually their road record isn't so bad (4-4), except that two of those losses were at HSBC vs. the Bandits, and there's a decent chance they'll end up having to shuffle off to Buffalo yet again for the East final. On the other hand, one of the Swarm's four road wins was at San Jose, which is the only Western team that would host a CC final vs. the Swarm.

As for factoring home-turf into this analysis, I thought about doing that but decided against it for two reasons. First, as we all know, the NLL schedule is quite, shall we say, idiosyncratic. Some teams only played one game at home among the last five, while others, including my Swarm, only played one on the road. It didn't seem right to judge a team's recent home or road performance on one game. Second, it occurs to me that home-turf advantage is a bit blunted by the NLL being a long-distance commuter's league. With the possible exceptions of games in Toronto, Buffalo and Rochester, every game is a virtual road game for most of the players on any NLL roster.

Originally Posted by RockStar#666

Well, in the NLL, the championship is won through a single game where the guys who score the most goals win.

IMO, the best defense is whichever one that allows fewer goals than their offense scores. When it comes to taking home the hardware, it doesn't really matter if that's 3 goals against, or 17!

Now, if it were a championship series, I'd put my money on the team with better D and goaltending most times. In a single game knockout though, I'd take it case by case and sometimes offense is going to overcome all.

I feel ya there... hence my remarks to the effect that while a superior DI gives you an edge, a potent enough offense can still overcome it. You may have noticed that I even hinted at the kind of offense that can take down even the stingiest D: one with a wide array of legitimate scoring threats and playmakers, and that spreads the ball around between them. That's the kind of offense that can overtax any defense, because you can never know for sure just where the attack is going to come from. That's why I still think Minnesota has a good chance to "Bite The Big Apple" this weekend. If I were to prognosticate based on defensive performance alone, I'd be afraid the Swarm would end up biting something else instead.

[ND14]

Originally Posted by Gonzo In Roch

I understand what you are trying to say.
But you're missing my point.

Of course you have to win games to get to the Title game.
But my friend? I can tell you from experience:
The Title game is a WHOLE different beast.

This teams got great offense during the regular season / that teams got great defense during the regular season / this team won because of this / that team lost because of that......


It all goes out the window in a Title game.

I know what you're getting at, but I disagree. It's the same teams playing the same game in the championship. Just because the stakes are higher doesn't mean that a team's offense will go out the window.

[Gonzo In Roch]

Originally Posted by ND14

= Just because the stakes are higher doesn't mean that a team's offense will go out the window.

That's not what I am saying either.

[fandit]

Originally Posted by XcelLaX

Thank you. I presume you're referring to my Swarm there.

Actually, I was talking about the Wings and their uncanny ability to give up 20+ goals a game on the road.